Countdown to Belem: What to expect at COP 30?

Under the Paris Agreement, 2025 is the deadline for updated National Determined Contributions (NDCs), covering the period up to 2035. The first deadline was in February, but the time got extended as only 7% of parties met the initial deadline. Even if countries submit their NDCs before the end of October, they are unlikely to be aligned to 1.5°C, with current estimations showing we are on track for a 2.7°C degree rise. As of September, only 50 out of 194 NDCs had been submitted, including Brazil, the US, and the UK, in contrast to the absence of submissions from China, India, Russia, or even the EU.

At COP29 in Baku (2024), developed nations agreed to scale up climate finance to $300 billion/year by 2030 — far short of the $1.3 trillion/year that developing countries say is needed. COP29 mandated Azerbaijan and Brazil to design a “Baku–Belém Roadmap” for financing beyond 2030. Contentious issues include:

• Sources of finance (public budgets, private leverage, innovative instruments like fossil fuel levies); and
• Distribution and governance (how funds are allocated between mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage).

In preparation to the Roadmap the COP Presidency asked for feedback from Parties, constituted bodies, operating entities of the Financial Mechanism, climate finance institutions, observers and observer organizations, and other stakeholders, particularly the private sector, by the 10th of September on priorities to scale up financing, strategies to enhance public and private financing mechanisms, proposals to accelerate capital mobilization

Negotiations in Belém will show if the finance agenda can move from fragmented pledges to predictable delivery.

Brazil wants COP30 to be remembered as the “COP of implementation,” not just negotiation. Organizers have structured the agenda around six thematic axes and 30 key objectives, from tripling renewable energy capacity and regenerating ecosystems, to building resilient cities and accelerating access to sustainable finance and artificial intelligence.

The concept of just transition is also expected to be one of the central themes with both governments and civil society pushing for the concept to move from political rhetorics to concrete mechanisms. Several elements are emerging:

An expansion of the definition

Developing countries (through the G77+China) are advocating to broaden the official scope of just transition beyond the labor focus on fossil fuel phase-out. They want it to encompass critical minerals, energy access and energy poverty. This reflects their priorities: ensuring that the mining of copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel – essential for renewables and EVs – delivers jobs, revenues, and domestic value-add, while avoiding environmental harm and labor abuses.

This “whole economy” approach also aligns with COP28’s pledge to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, as the mineral supply chain becomes inseparable from the energy transition.

Potential New Institutional Mechanism

Campaigners and some governments are calling for COP30 to establish a new coordinating body – provisionally dubbed the “Belém Action Mechanism”. This would serve as an anchor for advice-sharing, coordination, and accountability on just transition, supporting governments in designing policies that centre workers, communities, and equitable development.

Such a change would turn just transition into a structured architecture under the UNFCCC, rather than a loose principle, moving from rhetorics into a real architecture.

Negotiating Basis from Bonn

The June 2025 Bonn conference already delivered an informal note that will be the basis for COP30 talks. The document lists core challenges: ensuring social protection, re-skilling workers, supporting communities dependent on polluting industries, and balancing development needs with climate goals.

It also reflects pressure from developing countries to address trade restrictions, industrial development, and fair access to technology and finance, which they see as inseparable from a just transition.

At COP28 in Dubai (2023), parties agreed for the first time to “transition away from fossil fuels,” but left wide discretion for each country. Belém will test whether governments can strengthen this language into clearer phase-out commitments, especially for coal and oil. Methane is also in the spotlight: as the most powerful short-term greenhouse gas, stronger methane-reduction pledges could be one of the most immediate wins.

COPs are often criticized for being slow, opaque, and negotiation-heavy, often alienating businesses, local governments, and the public. Brazil’s presidency is pushing for a dual-track model:

·         Traditional negotiations on finance, adaptation, and stocktake.

·         A parallel action agenda focused on implementation, with open debates and cross-sector engagement.

Reform momentum is reinforced by the legal dimension: in 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion holding states legally accountable for climate obligations. This adds pressure for clearer and more enforceable outcomes.